Royal Delta set for Sabin
Horseracing Betting Lines
02/22/2012 - Hallandale Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Champion filly Royal Delta is ready to make her 2012 debut in Saturday's $100,000 Sabin Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The four-year-old will face four challengers in the 1 1/6-mile race.
Royal Delta, winner of last year's Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, will once again have Jose Lezcano in the saddle and the pair will break from post two. Eclipse Award winner Bill Mott trains for Besilu Stables.
The filly is using the Sabin as a prep race for the $10 million Dubai World Cup on March 31 versus males.
"This is what it's all about," said Mott. "I'd like to see a good, solid effort in this race so we can look forward to Dubai. "She's doing really well. She's had a bit of a rest but her recent works have been good. She's showed she is willing to go long, willing to work, and she looks good doing it."
In 2011, Royal Delta won the Black-Eyed Susan and Alabama Stakes and was second to Havre de Grace in the Beldame. She's earned $1,694,600 in eight career starts with five wins.
"I think we're at a slight disadvantage at a mile-and-a-sixteenth," Mott noted. "It's a short wire turning for home and I don't think it plays into our filly's style. I don't think that's her best race, she's a bit of a stretch runner. I don't think the conditions are the most ideal but we're running in the race that's available."
Joining last year's champion three-year-old filly is Awesome Maria, winner of last year's Sabin. The five-year-old mare, trained by Todd Pletcher, has drawn to the outside of Royal Delta and will be ridden by her regular jockey John Velazquez.
"She's training exceptionally well," said Pletcher. "We've been a little frustrated because she's been ready to run for a little while. We tried to get her in an allowance race about a month ago which we didn't get to go. We've kind of landed in a difficult situation running off a long layoff in a tough race, but she's trained very well, she likes this track, so we're optimistic. She's a top class filly at a mile-and-a-sixteenth and so we'll hope for the best."
Owned by Paul Robsham, Awesome Maria is making her first start since June of last year when she won the Ogden Phipps Handicap at Belmont Park. Before being sidelined with an injury, she was perfect in all four 2011 starts, including the Sabin. The gray mare has earned $842,375 with seven wins in 12 career starts.
Here is the complete field in post position order: Ghostly Darkness, Rajiv Maragh; Royal Delta, Jose Lezcano; Awesome Maria, John Velazquez; Groupie Doll, Calvin Borel and Canadian Mistress, Elvis Trujillo.
Post-time for the Sabin is set for 3:50 p.m. (et).
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.